Published 22 Dec, 2022
Fortunity is the world's first decentralized exchange (DEX) for trading forecast derivatives on economic variables and a winner of the Chainlink Fall 2022 Hackathon. The platform is built on Polygon, powered by Truflation’s data and Chainlink’s decentralized oracle ecosystem. Forecast derivatives act as perpetual prediction markets on any underlying variable.
Fortunity was a winner of the Chainlink Fall 2022 Hackathon. It placed 1st in the Truflation track among 44 projects submitted in our track and ~400 projects participating in the whole hackathon.
Fortunity lets anyone trade on the outcomes of indicators such as inflation, GDP growth, and more. At the same time, the crowd's wisdom is turned into unique forecasts and shapes a clearer vision of the economy for everyone, independent of the official experts.
Unlike standard prediction markets that let users only bet on yes or no questions or require that answers be put in buckets, Fortunity calls itself a ‘forecasts market,' allowing bets on continuous predictions. It combines the concepts of perpetual futures and prediction markets by indexing perpetual futures to a function of the value of the underlying variable, thus enabling users to trade economic indicators like they would the assets.
For example, the Truflation’s inflation metric, TruCPI, can be shown as 1 + TruCPI/100. This is then used as an Index Price for Fortunity to track with Forecast Derivative.
Below you can check the demo of the trading platform:
By using a Growth-Variable vAMM model, currently used across DEXes, Fortunity brings together traders and liquidity providers and allows the smart contract to transform any variables, even non-positive indicators such as GDP growth rate, into a positive equivalent Forecast Derivative so that they can be continuously traded on the exchange. For a deeper dive into Fortunity’s financial and technical architecture, see the project’s whitepaper.
Fortunity uses Chainlink for its decentralized, verifiable, on-chain data feeds, including Truflation’s independent inflation indexes for the US and the UK. The team hopes to incorporate more inflation metrics and support other variables in the near future.
The team chose to build on Polygon for its low network fee, fast-growing DeFi ecosystem & community, and brilliant development support. Truflation data are currently available on five blockchains: Ethereum, Polygon, Avalanche, Fantom, and BNB Chain.
The Fortunity team includes economists, engineers, and developers, who were not afraid to delve deep into core financial mathematics to solve the problem of making variables tradeable.
In the future, the forecasting data could serve traders looking for economic insights. The uncorrelated character of some of the assets could unlock a consistent source of passive income, and continuous trading could enable users to hedge against unexpected economic shocks.
If successful, this revolutionary take on the prediction markets and enabling trading variables as assets could unlock the next chapter in finance.
Fortunity is the world's first decentralized exchange (DEX) for trading forecast derivatives on economic variables and a winner of the Chainlink Fall 2022 Hackathon. Forecast derivatives act as perpetual prediction markets on any underlying variable.
Truflation is an economic data aggregator serving independent, unbiased, real-time data on-chain and off-chain. It validates, harmonizes, and calculates outputs using open-source algorithms. Truflation’s oracles are a source of independent censorship-resistant data on-chain and an engine that powers inflation-protected web3 applications and blockchain economies.
Fortunity's Devpost entry
Fortunity white paper
Written by Natalia Nowakowska