Truflation: US Inflation Update  December 2023

Executive Summary  

The labor market continues to remain tight, which pushes up the price of services, and we don’t expect this trend to reverse any time soon. At the same time, consumer spending has remained strong across the festive months but is expected to drop in January along with the post-holiday.  

blues. Meanwhile, consumer confidence ended 2023 with a surge amid restored optimism of the current business conditions and job availability. Combined, we still expect these trends to contribute to sticky inflation that will be hard to shift. 

Truflation expects the BLS inflation reading for December to come in at 3.2%, with economists’ expectations ranging from 3.0% to 3.4%.  

The key highlights of this month's Inflation Report are: 

● Transportation prices keep falling due to gas prices continuing to drop and excess vehicle supply. However, the ongoing Hamas war, the Red Sea conflict and China’s  recovery may push prices higher again in the future. 

● Housing prices are finally losing a little steam, but high mortgage rates and significant  supply shortages have only dampened the market marginally, and the housing  affordability crisis is set to continue. 

● Food, health, household operations, and communications were the biggest contributors to upward inflation in December. There are still inflationary pressures here from the  services element, driven by the tight labor market. 

● Another increase in core inflation is expected, which will give the Fed food for thought.  

It is increasingly evident that inflationary pressures are likely to last longer than anticipated as a  result of the continued tightness in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and elevated  services prices. We believe an economic slowdown will be required to bring inflation down. 

With inflation being driven by consumer demand, it has broadened into many categories, offsetting the downward impact of transportation and housing. 

Following the anticipated January cool down in consumer spending coupled with the tight labor market, our expectation is that inflation will end Q1 at 2.8%.

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Consumer spending remains strong in a tight labor market  

In late December, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third and final GDP estimate for Q3 2023, which was revised down from 5.2% to 4.9%. Yet this number remains  high, reflecting the increases in consumer spending and inventory investments.  

With the onset of the festive season, consumer spending resumed with a vengeance in  November, with retail sales increasing by 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and 4.0% year-over year (YoY). This strong annual growth trend has been consistent over the past few months and  does not take into account the impact of inflation. 

Graph 1: Monthly Retail Sales and Inventories - Adjusted 

Source: US Census Department; Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey 

The increase in retail sales reflects the growth in non-store retailers, which saw a 10.6%  increase in sales, while sales of food services and drinking places were up 11.3% year on year. 

However, inventory levels remain significantly elevated, despite certain categories starting to  see a flattening – in particular, general merchandise stores, building materials, furniture and  clothing stores. Yet these reductions in inventory levels were offset by the continued growth in  motor vehicles and parts dealers, suggesting that we are likely to see further downward  pressure on vehicle prices. 

The continued strength in consumer spending adds complexity to the Federal Reserve’s next  monetary policy decision. While the last Fed meeting appeared to mark the official end to the  rate-hiking cycle, the prevailing expectations of aggressive easing are certainly premature. At its  last meeting of 2023, the Fed held interest rates unchanged, in line with our expectations. 

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The rise in long-term bond yields has reduced the need for further rate hikes as tighter financial  conditions can substitute for a higher terminal policy rate. The current economic outlook points  to economic weakening and moderating inflation, which should allow the Fed to kickstart its  easing cycle in late Q2 2024. However, inflation will persist and the threat of a reacceleration  will limit how much the Fed will be able to reduce its policy rate this year, leaving some scope  for further tightening if needed.  

We expect a gradual reduction in the policy rate of just 75 basis points in 2024. Expectations of steeper cuts based on historic comparisons are unwarranted since much steeper cuts tend to trigger sharp declines in growth. 

Graph 2: Prior US Federal Reserve easing cycles 

Source: The Federal Reserve 

US personal spending continued to accelerate in November. According to the Bureau of  Economic Analysis, it rose 0.27% MoM to $18.86 trillion, marking a 5.4% YoY increase. 

This is being supported by wage growth, which has continued to accelerate as a result of the tight labor market. In November, the pace of wage increases outstripped inflation for the sixth  month in a row, coming in at 6.5%, up from the previous month’s 5.7%. As a result, households  have also been able to marginally improve their savings rate to 4.1%.

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Graph 3: US Personal Consumption; Key Figures 

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays Report 

The US labor market remained tight, with non-farm payroll rising by 216,000, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Employment numbers continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance and construction sectors, while transportation and  warehousing experienced job losses. Total separations also dropped to their lowest level in  2023, down 9.5% year on year to 5.34 million.  

However, we have seen a decline in job vacancies to 8.7 million in November, the lowest number since March 2021. This has helped the vacancies to unemployment ratio fall to a more moderate 1.3 from a peak of 2 in March 2022.  

Nevertheless, we expect the ongoing resilience of the labor market to contribute to the inflationary pressures. As a result, don’t expect a sharp rise in the US unemployment rate any  time soon, and indeed any increases so far have been muted relative to prior cycles.  

Given the current economic backdrop, we maintain our view that strong consumer spending  and stubborn prices in the services category, which makes up 42% of the US CPI index, will keep  inflation elevated for longer than the market is anticipating.

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Recent inflation trends 

Inflation is no longer running wild but is not yet fully under control. Headline CPI as reported by  the BLS cooled to 3.1% in November and signs are optimistic that more easing is to come but  services inflation is proving to be persistent. Core Inflation – the Fed’s preferred inflation  measure which strips out volatile food and energy prices – has moderated somewhat as a result  of goods prices remaining flat. However, core services inflation is running hot at 5.5%, well  above its pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.2%. This upside risk to inflation is likely to persist  given a still structurally tight US labor market and strong growth in real incomes. 

The market’s expectations for the BLS December CPI release range from 3.0% to 3.4%.  Truflation is expecting the CPI to marginally increase from its current level of 3.1% in November  to 3.2% in December. 

Despite the marginal uptick in the prices of goods, particularly in food and alcohol, we see this  as a temporary increase as a result of the festive period. However, services have remained  more stubborn and have, in fact, seen prices continue to rise in December, driven by strong  wage growth and plentiful employment opportunities. 

Meanwhile, our core inflation index has seen continued growth in December, which provides  clues as to the key areas that must be addressed to bring inflation down to the Central Bank’s  2% target. 

Graph 4: Truflation Core Inflation Measures (Goods vs Services vs Core) 

Given the substantial weighting of the services sector and food in the US CPI index, we still  believe an economic slowdown will be required to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. 

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In particular, we need to see further softening in the labor market for prices in the services  sector to cool. 

Truflation’s Consumer Sentiment Index has ended 2023 with a surge in confidence, with a  significant uptick from 86.48 in November to 92.51 in December pointing to restored consumer  optimism. This improvement is reflective of the positive ratings of current business conditions,  job availability, and a less pessimistic view of the business labor market and personal income  expectations over the next six months. 

This increase in consumer confidence was more concentrated among the higher-income  households with more than $125k in annual income. However, despite feeling more confident,  consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices, while politics, interest rates and global  conflicts all moved down the list of top concerns. On top of this, two-thirds of consumers see  the possibility of a recession in the next 12 months. 

Graph 5: Truflation Consumer Confidence Trends 

The rebound in consumer confidence has implications for Truflation’s inflation outlook. It is  clear that as supply concerns have alleviated, price spikes have also begun to unwind. Now,  inflation is primarily driven by soaring consumer demand. 

Against the backdrop of a tight labor market, inflation has now broadened into many  categories, partially offsetting the downward impact of transportation and, for the first time in  a long while, housing.

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Graph 6: Category Percentage Contributions to Truflation CPI 

With this in mind, the most significant upward contributions to inflation in December came  from food, health and utilities, while transportation and housing were once again the biggest  downward contributors. 

Categories applying downward pressure on prices 

In December, three main categories contributed to the downward inflation trend: housing,  transportation and apparel, which make up 23.2%, 19.8% and 3.8% of Truflation’s US CPI index,  respectively. 

The transport category continues to be the single biggest contributor to the downward trend at  -0.84% MoM in December, which brings down the annualized rate to +3.17% YoY. This was  driven by a 5.7% drop in gasoline prices this month, with deflation in this category hitting -3.0%  YoY. Since crude oil prices peaked on September 27, 2023, we have seen a continuous steady  decline, although December has seen prices stabilize somewhat.  

Graph 7: Price of WTI Crude Oil per Barrel 

US$72.83 for January 5, 2023 

Data Source: Weekly Petroleum Status from the Energy Information Administration

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The market has been correcting itself, insofar as there have been no supply disruptions and the  likelihood of the Iranian warship in the Red Sea engaging with American warships is slim.  Denmark’s Maersk and German rival Hapag-Lloyd said their container ships will keep avoiding  the Red Sea route that provides access to the Suez Canal. However, should a wider conflict  ensue, it could close crucial waterways for oil transportation and drive prices higher. 

A Reuters survey of economists and analysts predicted Brent crude would average $82.56 a  barrel this year, up slightly from the 2023 average of $82.17, with weak global growth expected  to cap demand. However, geopolitical tensions could support higher oil prices, combined with  rising expectations of economic stimulus measures in China after manufacturing activity shrank  for the third month in a row. Any such stimulus would boost oil demand and prices. 

Graph 8: Truflation Transportation Category Price Trends 

Demand for new and used cars has also remained sluggish in the last couple of months and  current rising interest rates on financing costs and excess inventory have continued to place  downward pressure on vehicle prices. Auto retail inventory rose from $220.7 billion in June to  $240 billion in November 2023. 

As a result, vehicle purchases (new and used) are down 0.20% MoM and 1.79% YoY,  respectively. As inventory levels outstrip demand, we expect prices in this category to continue falling.

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Graph 9: Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers in $ Millions; Adjusted Sales and Inventories

Source: US Census Department; Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey 

Public transportation prices have continued to see a marginal increase of 0.15% MoM and are  up 3.59% YoY. It is not surprising to see public transportation prices, which include planes,  trains, taxis, and subways, increasing in December, given the ongoing effect of the festive  season. 

The Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) checkpoint daily travel numbers reveal an  annual increase of 9.72% in December. This not only marks an increase from November, an  already busy month which saw travel numbers rise by 1.19%, but also has surpassed the 2019  air travel levels by more than 2.5 million passengers. The soaring demand also led to an  increase in fair travel fares, especially as consumers book last-minute holidays. However, after  this festive season, we do expect to see airfares return to pre-pandemic levels.  

Another category pushing inflation lower is housing and December marks the second month of  negative monthly percentage change since January 2023. Housing inflation this month has  come in at -0.71% MoM, contributing to a reduction in the annualized rate to 2.60%. 

These price drops are driven by the owned property segment, which is down 1.15% MoM and  3.67% YoY. At the same time, the national average 30-year mortgage rates finally lost steam  over the past two months, dropping to 6.61% as of December 27, 2023, from a peak of 7.79%  on October 25, according to Freddie Mac. To add some context, mortgage rates were in the low  3% only two years ago.

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In this context, monthly new residential home and existing home sales changed -12.2% and +0.8% MoM and +1.4%and -7.3% YoY respectively, according to the Census Bureau and the  National Association of Realtors (NAR). As a result, we have seen median prices and average  prices of new residential homes falling by 5.9% and 7.3% YoY respectively. 

Graph 10: Truflation Housing Category Price Trends 

Despite the easing, a perfect storm of high mortgage rates and home prices coupled with  historically low housing stock continues to put homeownership out of reach for many – most  notably first-time buyers who remain more pessimistic than ever about being able to afford a  home as we start 2024. 

One of the factors needed to drive further easing of housing prices is home sales inventories,  which would need to be considerably higher to ease the upward pressure on prices. Existing  home stock was down 1.7% in November, according to NAR, registering 1.13 million units of  

unsold inventory. This currently sits at a 3.5-month supply, down from 3.6 months in October at  the current sales pace. For the inventory supply to be balanced, experts require 4-6 months of  inventory. 

New residential construction levels remain significantly below historic averages, especially if we  consider population growth in the US since 1999. The number of new residential home permits  that are yet to begin construction has fallen 14% between January and November 2023  compared to the same period last year (YoY YTD), while new residential starts are down 10% 

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YTD YoY, which suggests the chances of the inventory problem being resolved any time soon  are low. 

Graph 11: Housing Supply; New Residential Permits, Starts and Completes in 000s of Units

Source: US Census Bureau / New Residential Construction Report (all in 000s of Units) 

The expectations are that inventory levels will not cool off particularly soon, while the rapidly  falling mortgage rates could create a surge in demand that would wipe away any inventory  gains, causing home prices to rebound. It is better from a housing perspective that rates cool at  a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over time rather than all at once. The third major category to contribute to the downward movement in inflation is the apparel industry, which saw a 3.08% MoM decline in prices, bringing down the YoY growth rate to  +2.32%. Retailers were forced to implement prolonged discounts throughout the festive period  as budget-conscious consumers showed reluctance to pay full prices.  

Many retailers were also over-stocked after a poor start to the season given the mild  unseasonal weather patterns. As such, Christmas was a challenging period for many and the  promotional activity has put further strain on existing margins. There are unlikely to be any  major challenges after this festive season, given the inventory level adjustments that have been  made over this period, beyond the potential impact of macroeconomic developments. 

Categories applying continued upward pressure on inflation 

December registered upward inflationary pressures from food, utilities, health, household and  daily items, alcohol, communication, education and recreation and culture. These have been 

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driven by rising goods supply costs on the one hand, and the tight labor market driving up the  services element on the other. 

December registered another month of food price increases, with a rise of 0.27% MoM and  1.86% YoY. This upward trend is evident in both grocery prices (food at home) and the cost of  dining out (food away from home). 

Graph 12: Truflation Food & Beverage Category Price Trends 

Consumers were hoping that food would start to become less expensive as we head into 2024,  but this seems unlikely to happen. While some food costs are more likely to fall, on the whole,  the US Department of Agriculture expects food inflation to finish 2024 at 3%. While this is a  lower growth rate compared to recent years, it means that consumers will have to get used to  paying more for food. 

Rising food prices are a normal economic phenomenon. As long as consumers have time to get  used to them and their wages catch up with the increases, they will become less worried about  this. The adjustment started towards the end of 2023, but consumers’ purchasing power is yet  to catch up fully after three years of significant inflationary pressures. 

Looking at December specifically, it seems consumers are creatures of habit when it comes to  the festive season, and our data shows that the classic festive plate remains much the same.  However, the overall costs have increased significantly given the increasingly higher labor, 

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packaging and production costs. Despite this, supermarkets and grocery retailers experienced  their busiest Christmas since 2019, boosted by promotions to entice shoppers. Between a  quarter and a third of all festive spending went on items with some kind of offer, while  consumers also displayed strong demand for more affordable luxury items. 

Alcohol and tobacco saw similar trends, with an increase of 0.31% MoM and 3.58% YoY, with  beer, spirits and champagne being on the top of people's shopping lists over New Year, while  wines were more popular at Christmas. It is no surprise that when people come together to  celebrate over the festive season, they are more inclined to treat themselves and spend more.  Retailers, bars and restaurants have been capitalizing on this by stocking up on high-quality  sparkling and premium wines. 

A survey by Numerator found that 64% of US households made an alcohol purchase during the  holidays. A vast majority of those surveyed (some 85.9%) purchased alcohol during this period  for a holiday event and 61% purchased it as a gift, which has driven up the price of alcohol.  

The utilities category also saw an increase of 0.16% MoM and 2.64% YoY. These increases were  driven by natural gas, where prices increased 1.34% MoM and 0.19% YoY in December. Around  40% of the electricity in the US is produced by burning natural gas, the cost of which spiked to a  14-year-high last fall before dropping in 2023. 

While wholesale power costs have dropped, there is generally a lag in how long it takes for such  decreases to filter down to the prices residents see on their monthly power bills. According to  the EIA, this trend is not expected to become apparent in retail prices until later in 2024. 

Graph 13: Truflation Utilities Category Price Trends

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Many utilities providers buy natural gas in the fall, and it is spread out over time so consumers  don't get hit with a large bill right away. Most utilities providers need to ask regulators to  approve any price increases, which is another reason for the delayed price changes. And  outside of fuel prices, utilities' costs for labor and maintenance are still rising. 

In addition, utilities companies are rebuilding their grids, which is expensive. Large parts of the  grid were built decades ago and require replacement, even before the upgrade announced by  the White House last year to accommodate more electric cars and the rollout of more solar and  wind power. Meanwhile wires make up about half the cost of electricity for consumers. So just  because the cost of natural gas fuel has come down doesn't mean it's a one-to-one  relationship. These factors are likely to keep electricity costs for consumers relatively high for  the near future, experts say. 

"A lot of transmission facilities are 60 or 70 years old, and that's about their lifespan," said Rob  Gramlich, founder of Grid Strategies, a consulting firm that specializes in renewable energy. "It's  sort of like when your car dies ... when the time comes, you've got to pay up." 

In addition to this, December experienced colder weather than average, especially from the  Great Lakes into the Northern Plains and much of the East. This no doubt resulted in higher  utility consumption, again driving up the costs and overall spending. 

Healthcare inflation rose again in November, up 0.36% MoM, driven by a number of factors,  including increased premiums, higher deductibles and co-pays, and soaring drug prices. As such,  there is no single reason to blame for rising health costs. However, the key drivers are  predominately service-related, such as the rising cost of insurance, medical services, and  medical supplies. All these increases are being driven by the tight labor market and a general  rise in the cost of resources, with these trends looking unlikely to shift anytime soon. 

Other categories continuing to drive inflation upwards include household durables and daily  use items, communication, education, and recreation and culture. These are driven by the  stubborn services element, which of course continues to be driven by the tight labor market. 

So what does this mean for inflation in 2024? 

Our forecast for the inflation rate in December 2023 is 3.2%, which keen readers of our reports  will notice is 0.3% lower than our previous Q4 forecast. The major contributing factor to this  difference was the oil price, which has seen a significant decline since the mid-September peak. 

The knock-on effect is that 50% of the price movement in oil directly impacts gas prices, which  have fallen 5.1%, 9.5%, and 3.0% MoM respectively in October, November, and December. 

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These falls come despite the supply restrictions set by OPEC+ countries, the Hamas / Israel  conflict and the escalation of tensions in the Red Sea. This drop was unexpected and  contradicts the previous predictions laid out by EIA and several leading economists. 

In the FOMC’s long-term economic projections from its December meetings, policymakers are  forecasting core inflation to drop from 3.2% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. Private  sector forecasters are equally optimistic about inflation in 2024. Private sector experts expect  inflation to drop below 2.5% in 2024, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, with  

Goldman Sachs projecting core inflation to fall to 2.4% by December 2024. The firm anticipates  rebalancing in the auto, labor, and housing rental markets will spearhead this disinflation. 

However, Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group, says the late-year stock market rally  in 2023 may be premature because the last leg of the Fed’s inflation fight could be the most  difficult. “The Fed will not want to take the risk of pivoting on policy too soon by cutting rates,”  Green said.  

At Truflation, we also believe that the data is still not strong enough for the Central Bank of the  world’s largest economy to commit to reversing its most aggressive tightening campaign in  decades; yet the markets seem ready to confidently and heavily price in rate cuts. 

The timing and pace of the interest rate easing will depend on a number of factors, including  inflation data, labor market statistics, and financial market conditions. In December, Fed Chair  Jerome Powell said it’s still too early to be seriously discussing a pivot to interest rate cuts. “It  would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently  restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,” he said.  

Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, says Powell is likely not bluffing when he says  rate cuts won’t be coming anytime soon. After badly missing the 2% inflation target in 2021 and  2022, the Fed wants to make sure inflationary pressures are fully under control before  beginning to reduce interest rates. We assume that the Fed will hold its federal funds target  unchanged at the current level of 5.25%-5.5% long into 2024 and begin the rate-cutting cycle  with a quarter percentage point cut, at least initially. 

The big concern for the Fed’s war on inflation in 2024 remains the sticky inflation of services,  which is no doubt driven by the tight labor market. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL  Financial, says sticky inflation could be a thorn in the Fed’s side in 2024. “Although inflation  continues to ease, the Fed will still not declare total victory as the stubborn, so-called ‘sticky’  inflation is untangling at a slower than expected pace,” Krosby said. She also believes the FOMC  may err on the side of keeping interest rates elevated until it has tackled sticky inflation and  completed the “last mile” of its campaign. “For the Fed, cutting too early and then having to  raise rates again soon after would be viewed as a policy error—not fatal, but an error,  nonetheless.”

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The consumer-based inflation expectations surveys from the University of Michigan and the  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which represent the sentiment of American households,  reveal that consumers expect inflation to come down on a one-year horizon, but they are not as  optimistic as the institutional forecasts. 

Graph 14: Consumer Inflation Expectations (2% is the Fed Target) 

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York & University of Michigan 

After reaching a four-decade high in 2022, both headline and core inflation has moderated  significantly in 2023 and some categories have seen more improvement than others. With this  in mind and given the usual post-festive blues, we expect headline inflation to drop in January.  We then expect inflation to hold steady before increasing again in the final month of the  quarter to sit at 2.8%. 

The key considerations and assumptions for our CPI inflation outlook predictions into Q1 are: 

● We are assuming the hiking cycle is over and the Fed Funds rate is on hold at 5.25%- 5.5% until mid-2024. This means that in Q1, all the interest rate-dependent categories of  inflation like mortgages, vehicle financing costs, and debt services costs will remain  largely unaffected in Q1. If inflation continues its trajectory over the next months, then  we think the FOMC will slowly start to normalize its policy rates. 

● Consumer spending will remain relatively strong: There have been numerous reasons to  expect consumer spending to begin slowing, given the diminished savings, low savings  rates, less pent-up demand, and the restarting of student loan repayments. However, 

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on the flip side, the tight labor market is supporting employment and therefore income  levels, which will continue to keep consumer spending relatively strong in Q1, bar the  usual post-festive blues. 

● Labor markets aren’t showing any signs of normalization yet: The momentum in the job  market is still holding strong, with payroll growth and unemployment holding steady,  but we expect a reduction in the temporary staff that were hired for the festive season.  Wages increased 6.5% YoY in December. This might slow in Q1 but not to a significant  enough level to cause a shift in behavior. 

● Housing sector activity has dropped by 30%-40% over the past 18 months amid the  surge in mortgage rates. With housing affordability metrics at a 40-year low, combined  with 75% of mortgages locked in at 4% or below, the US housing market is effectively  frozen. Real residential investment has fallen as home values rose 6% to near-all-time  highs in 2023. This comes amid tight supply and historically low vacancies. We expect  the recent drop in housing prices to continue in Q1, albeit at a slower rate in Q1.  Housing is the one sector that could perform better in 2024 than it did in 2023. 

● Supply-chain bottlenecks are mostly behind us: With the inventory constraints and  shipping costs falling in 2023, supply chain considerations have shifted from short-term  tactics to longer-term strategies of minimizing costs. Legislations passed in 2022,  including the CHIPS, the Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, provide incentives  for certain strategic industries, including semiconductors and renewables, to onshore  production. This will result in rising business investment but also translate to higher  costs for consumers in the long run. 

● Geopolitical risks will remain top of mind: With the continued tensions with China, the  ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the Israeli Hamas war, and the conflict in the Red Sea, we  see continued uncertainties and risks heading into 2024. While the economic impact for  the US has been limited until now, the impact on critical commodities or goods like  energy and food can trigger significant market disruptions. For example, at present we  have assumed oil prices to have bottomed out for Q1.

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Graph 15: Category Percentage Contributions to Truflation CPI to Q1 

Looking further ahead into 2024, we believe inflation will gradually ease, driven by housing and  the softening of the labor market, but transportation, health and food will put upward pressure  on prices. The road to the Fed's 2% inflation target remains long and hard. 

About Truflation 

Truflation provides a set of independent inflation indices drawing on 30+ data partners/sources  and more than 12 million product prices across the US. These indexes are released daily,  making it one of the most up-to-date and comprehensive inflation measurement tools in the  world. Truflation has been leveraging this measurement tool to predict the BLS CPI number,  with four predictions spot on and all but one deviating by no more than 20 basis points since  coverage was initiated.

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APPENDIX A 

Category Percentage Change Data; Month-over-Month and Year-over-Year All Data is Based on October 2023 Data 

Truflation Categories MoM% YoY% 

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages +0.27% +1.86% 

Housing -0.71% +2.60% 

Transportation -0.84% +3.17% 

Utilities +0.16% +2.64% 

Health +0.36% -0.27% 

Household Durables & Daily Use  Items 

+0.42% +4.24% 

Alcohol & Tobacco +0.86% +4.15% Clothing & Footwear -3.08% +2.32% Communications +0.00% -1.17% Education -0.14% +3.91% Recreation & Culture -0.33% +2.86% Other +0.38% +5.75% Total Truflation CPI -0.29% +2.62% 

Truflation Goods -0.70% +1.30% Truflation Services +0.00% +3.88% 

Truflation Core -0.33% +2.58% Truflation Non Core -0.66% +1.79%