Truflation: US Inflation Update December 2023

Consumer spending remains strong in a tight labor market  

In late December, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third and final GDP estimate for Q3 2023, which was revised down from 5.2% to 4.9%. Yet this number remains high, reflecting the increases in consumer spending and inventory investments.  

With the onset of the festive season, consumer spending resumed with a vengeance in November, with retail sales increasing by 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and 4.0% year-over year (YoY). This strong annual growth trend has been consistent over the past few months and does not take into account the impact of inflation. 

Graph 1: Monthly Retail Sales and Inventories - Adjusted 

Source: US Census Department; Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey 

The increase in retail sales reflects the growth in non-store retailers, which saw a 10.6%  increase in sales, while sales of food services and drinking places were up 11.3% year on year. 

However, inventory [read the rest of this exclusive 21 page report by selecting a Truflation Premium plan that works for you, here.]