Danielle DiMartino Booth: The US is Already in Recession

Former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth (DDB) is a contrarian voice among economists. Part heterodox, part guru, she is totally unafraid to go against whatever perceived grain. It makes her takes refreshing ... even if you find yourself disagreeing.

DDB is currently CEO and Chief Strategist out at QI Research, and her Substack, The Daily Feather, is mandatory reading.

We nabbed her for a Truflation Spaces, and, true to form, she gave it to us straight-no-chaser.

When asked about the prospect of a US recession, she was candid.

Nothing Controversial

"There's nothing controversial about my call at all," DDB insisted, "unless it's different this time, ... and maybe I'm older than most the people on this Twitter spaces but I was kind of raised on a trading floor to be very wary when somebody trumps out 'it's different this time.'"

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She pointed in particular to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and how they "have been running state level unemployment rates since 1976, and in nine out of nine instances since 1976 that 50 or more of us States, including Washington DC which makes the tally 51, but in nine out of nine times when 50 of the 51 have rising state unemployment rates, the United States has been in recession. It's pretty simple. That's where we were in October. We've since had many validating data points."

Zero Full-Time Job Creation

And it was just about right here where she dropped a bomb.

"The last time the United States created a fulltime job net-net, as opposed to part-time, was February of 2023," DDB stated flatly. So there are vast amounts of evidence, after last Friday's jobs report especially, that are corroborating signs that we've long since fallen into recession."

There's a lot more in her 40 minute appearance, and you can listen here.

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