Profiting From a Harris or Trump Win: Truflation CEO Weekly Dispatch
Published 05 Nov, 2024
A Note from Founder & CEO - STEFAN RUST
Greetings from Hong Kong. It’s been a productive few days, having just finished full sets of panels, talks, and meetings at Hong Kong FinTech Week and Chainlink's SmartCon.
The background buzz amongst new financial gizmos and wizbangs is the US Presidential Election craziness. Everyone wants to talk about it, handicap it. A common thread for the financial community is where to park investment funds should Harris or Trump win.
It’s at least safe to assume either Harris or Trump will be the 47th president. So, maybe at this stage, it is best to assume what both candidates will face in the next four years.
Annual growth of the real gross domestic product of the United States from 1990 to 2023 (statista)
If recent history is any guide, the world’s economic engine has little to fear no matter who runs the Executive Branch. The US does appear to hum along on its merry way independent of the person at the head.
However, as the 2024 presidential election approaches, investors are understandably concerned about how the outcome might impact their portfolios. There are indeed several sectors and companies well-positioned to perform regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump emerges victorious on November 5, 2024.
Obvious: Technology and Artificial Intelligence
The technology sector, particularly companies focused on artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors, appears poised to continue its momentum regardless of the election outcome1. These industries are at the forefront of innovation and are likely to benefit from ongoing digital transformation across various sectors.
NVIDIA Corporation: A leader in AI and graphics processing units (GPUs)
Microsoft Corporation: Heavily invested in AI and cloud computing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC): The world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry
Infrastructure and Construction
Both Harris and Trump have expressed support for infrastructure investment, albeit with different focuses. This bipartisan interest suggests that companies in the construction and materials sectors could benefit regardless of the election result.
Caterpillar Inc.: A major manufacturer of construction and mining equipment
Vulcan Materials Company: One of the largest producers of construction aggregates
Nucor Corporation: A leading steel producer in North America
Renewable Energy and Traditional Energy
While the two candidates have different stances on energy policy, both sectors are likely to see continued investment and growth.
NextEra Energy: A leader in renewable energy production
First Solar: A major manufacturer of solar panels
Exxon Mobil Corporation: A diversified energy company investing in both traditional and renewable sources
Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals
Healthcare remains a critical sector regardless of who occupies the White House. While specific policies may differ, the overall demand for healthcare services and products is likely to remain strong.
UnitedHealth Group: A diversified healthcare company
Johnson & Johnson: A pharmaceutical and consumer health products company
Moderna, Inc.: A biotechnology company known for its mRNA technology
Defense and Aerospace
Defense spending typically remains robust regardless of the administration, although priorities may shift.
Lockheed Martin Corporation: A global aerospace and defense company
Raytheon Technologies Corporation: A major defense contractor and aerospace manufacturer
Financial Services
While regulatory approaches may differ between administrations, financial services companies are likely to adapt and find opportunities for growth.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.: A diversified financial services company
BlackRock, Inc.: The world's largest asset manager
Visa Inc.: A global leader in digital payments
Consumer Staples
Companies in this sector tend to perform well regardless of economic conditions or political leadership, as they provide essential goods.
Procter & Gamble Company: A multinational consumer goods corporation
Walmart Inc.: A retail giant with a strong e-commerce presence
Costco Wholesale Corporation: A membership-based warehouse retailer
Cybersecurity
With increasing digital threats, cybersecurity remains a critical concern for both public and private sectors, regardless of who is in office.
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.: A global cybersecurity leader
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.: A cloud-native endpoint protection platform
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
REITs can offer stability and income potential across various economic conditions.
American Tower Corporation: A global REIT focusing on wireless infrastructure
Prologis, Inc.: An industrial REIT benefiting from e-commerce growth
While these sectors and companies show promise regardless of the election outcome, it's crucial to remember investing always carries risks. Market conditions can change rapidly, and individual company performance can vary. Diversification across sectors and asset classes remains a key strategy for managing risk.
Additionally, it's important to consider your personal financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon when making investment decisions. Consulting with a qualified financial advisor can help ensure your investment strategy aligns with your specific circumstances and objectives.
Of course, staying informed about policy proposals and their potential impacts on various sectors can help investors make more informed decisions. Maintaining a long-term perspective and focusing on fundamentals rather than short-term political fluctuations is often the most prudent approach to investing.
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