Previous Reports
Published T-1 inflation forecast reports — released 24 hours before the official government print.
June 24, 2026
Truflation: BEA PCE Price Index Monthly Report - May 2026
Inflation Status The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on June 25. As the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the report will serve as a critical data point for markets assessing the likely path of monetary policy over the coming months. Truflation expects inflationary pressures to remain elevated in May. Headline PCE is forecast to rise 0.4% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year, broadly in line
June 9, 2026
Truflation BLS CPI Forecast and US Monthly Inflation Report - May 2026.
Economic Overview Despite ongoing concerns about inflation, interest rates, and household finances, U.S. consumer spending remains remarkably resilient. Census Bureau retail sales data shows total sales increased by 4.9% year over year in April, up from 4.2% in March. Even excluding gasoline purchases, spending growth accelerated to 3.7% year over year from 3.2% in March. Bank of America’s credit and debit card spending data tells a similar story, with spending per household rising 4.8% year o
May 27, 2026
Truflation BEA PCE Price Index - Monthly Report - April 2026
Inflation Status - Gas, Gas, and more Gas The story behind April’s PCE Price Index is once again oil and its increasingly broad impact across the inflation basket. Oil prices have been highly volatile throughout April. West Texas Intermediate crude opened April at $100.12 per barrel, fell to $82.59 by April 17, before rebounding sharply to close the month at $105.07, moving back above the $100 threshold. This has fed directly into consumer fuel prices, with regular gasoline surpassing $4.40 pe
May 11, 2026
Truflation US Inflation Report & the BLS CPI Forecast - April 2026
Economic Overview The U.S. economy regained momentum in the first quarter of 2026, supported by robust consumer spending and continued investment tied to the accelerating AI infrastructure buildout. Real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1, below market expectations of 2.3% but a significant acceleration from the 0.5% pace recorded in Q4 2025. The improvement was driven primarily by a surge in business investment, particularly in equipment spending associated with AI-related capit
April 29, 2026
Truflation BEA PCE as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE
Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics Version 1.0 - April 10, 2026 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy. Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), remain the preferred inflation benchmark for the Federal Reserve; however, they are structurally backward-l
April 23, 2026
Truflation US CPI as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE Index
Version 1.0 - April 2, 2026 Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy. Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), remain the preferred inflation benchmark for the Federal Reserve; however, they are structurally backward-loo
April 8, 2026
Truflation March Inflation Report & BLS CPI Prediction
Economic Overview Economic growth slowed more than expected in the final quarter of 2025. GDP rose just 0.7% in Q4, down from the initial estimate of 1.4% and a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% expansion in Q3. The slowdown was largely driven by a prolonged government shutdown, which significantly reduced public spending. The downward revision also reflected weaker consumer spending (revised down by 0.4 percentage points), along with softer government expenditure and exports. Looking ahead, th
April 6, 2026
Truflation CPI a Leading Indicator of the BLS CPI
This is an updated report based on the latest regression analysis by the Truflation data team. 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy. Traditional measures such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), remain the official benchmark; however, they are structurally backward-looking due to: * Monthly data collection cycles * Survey-b
March 27, 2026
Truflation Updated 2026 CPI Weights
The Truflation Data Team just released our annual CPI weighting update. The new relative importance weights for the 2026 TruCPI-US Inflation Index are derived from 2025 household spending patterns, ensuring the index continues to mirror actual consumer spending with precision and timeliness. Where are the CPI relative importance weights derived from? The household expenditure is derived from multiple independent data sources to ensure robustness, neutrality, and resilience against bias. The s
March 10, 2026
Truflation BLS CPI Forecast and US Monthly Inflation Report - February 2026.
February 2026 Economic Overview U.S. economic growth slowed more than expected at the end of 2025 as a government shutdown weighed on spending and investment. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4 2025, significantly below the 2.5% consensus estimate. Consumer spending expanded at a slower pace during the quarter, while government spending declined sharply amid the longest shutdown on record. The shut
February 12, 2026
Truflation: US Monthly Inflation Report - January 2026.
Executive Summary The U.S. economy continues to show notable resilience, entering 2026 on a firm footing. Fourth quarter growth remained solid, driven by strong consumer demand, AI-related investment, and high productivity gains, following a robust 4.4% GDP expansion in Q3 2025. Despite risks stemming from potential trade wars and a cooling labor market, overall economic momentum remains intact. Consumer spending, the primary engine of the U.S. economy, continues to expand, albeit at a more mo
January 12, 2026
US Inflation Report & BLS CPI Forecast - December 2025
Executive Summary The U.S. economy entered late 2025 with signs of robust growth, as Q3 GDP expanded at a strong 4.3% annualized pace. However, growth is expected to moderate in early 2026 amid a tightening labor market, slowing wage growth, and disruptions related to the recent government shutdown. Consumer spending remains a key driver of economic activity, largely supported by higher-income households. However, personal income growth has flattened and the personal saving rate has declined,
December 10, 2025
Truflation US Monthly Inflation Report – November 2025
Executive Summary The holiday season has begun strongly, and the U.S. economy is expected to end the year on a solid footing. According to the BEA, GDP contracted 0.6% in the first quarter, while the second quarter saw a 3.8% increase. Initial estimates for the third quarter are scheduled to be published on December 23, but the latest projections from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, released on December 5, place third-quarter GDP growth at 3.5%. Growth in the fourth quarter is expected to
November 12, 2025
Truflation: US Monthly Inflation Report – October 2025
Executive Summary As a result of the longest U.S. government shutdown, much of the economic data typically released by government agencies has been delayed or even cancelled, deepening the uncertainty faced by the Federal Reserve, economists, and investors alike. The lack of official reports that normally guide policymakers on inflation and labor market trends has intensified the debate over whether another rate cut will be necessary at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. While central ba
November 12, 2025
Truflation: US Monthly Inflation Report – October 2025
Executive Summary As a result of the longest U.S. government shutdown, much of the economic data typically released by government agencies has been delayed or even cancelled, deepening the uncertainty faced by the Federal Reserve, economists, and investors alike. The lack of official reports that normally guide policymakers on inflation and labor market trends has intensified the debate over whether another rate cut will be necessary at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. While central ba
October 15, 2025
Truflation: US Monthly Inflation Report – September 2025
Executive Summary The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace than expected pace in Q2 2025, with GDP revised upward to 3.8% from the prior estimate of 3.3%. This marks the strongest quarterly growth in nearly two years. This surprise upside was primarily driven by a sharp contraction in imports, which narrowed the trade deficit and delivered a +4.83 percentage point boost from net exports, reversing the -4.68 point drag in Q1. The contraction in imports is largely attributed to inventory front
September 10, 2025
Truflation: US Monthly Inflation Report – August 2025
Executive Summary The US economy grew at a faster pace than initially estimated in the second quarter of the year, with GDP revised up to 3.3% from the preliminary 3.0%. This upward revision was primarily driven by a decline in imports (which subtract from GDP calculations), an increase in business investment in intellectual property (notable artificial intelligence) and a marginal rise in consumer spending, likely reflecting higher prices rather than increased consumption volume. However this
August 11, 2025
Truflation: US Monthly Inflation Report – July 2025
Executive Summary Despite the second quarter GDP growth, the figures have some worrying trends that suggest that the US economy is heading into a period of noticeably slower growth which is likely thanks to the impact of tariffs on inflation, the tightening of the labor market and as a consequence shrinking consumer spending. With the price increases occurring as a result of the new tariff policies, it will eat into real incomes, at a time when consumer spending is starting to look a bit shaky
July 14, 2025
Truflation: US Monthly Inflation Report – June 2025
Executive Summary The mantra at present is that the US economy is in pretty good shape. Inflation is down from the highs to now 2.4% year on year according to the BLS, unemployment rate has been holding steady at 4.1%, so overall the assumption is pretty healthy. It is difficult to see how the Federal Reserve would change their stance of the wait and learn more from the data given the healthiness of the economy, especially with the coming effects of the tariff. The majority of the FOMC parti
June 10, 2025
Truflation: US Monthly Inflation Report – May 2025
Executive Summary Inflation was relatively muted in April as tariffs implemented in the early part of that month had yet to show up in consumer prices, but the month of May is a different story. Consumer spending has slowed down sharply posting just a +0.2% increase MoM, which was in line with the consensus but definitely slower than the +0.7% increase in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9% up from 0.6 percentage points in
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